Very few of us will disagree that if you had told a Nigerian in 2024 that the Naira would one day be called one of the 'world’s most stable currencies', they probably would have checked your temperature to see if you were hallucinating.
But fast-forward to February 2026, and here we are!
According to the latest Lagos Business School (LBS) Executive Breakfast Session, our local currency has been showing some serious 'gym results', gaining muscle against the U.S. Dollar throughout 2025.
But as every Nigerian knows, when things are going too smoothly, you have to stay alert. The global economy is currently acting like a Lagos danfo driver in Monday morning traffic; unpredictable and a bit wild. So, how do we keep our Naira steady while the rest of the world is shaking?
Top Financial Analyst Bismarck Rewane's recent analysis underscores the importance of monitoring economic indicators and adapting to changing conditions to navigate uncertainties like the world is currently facing effectively.
Let’s break down Rewane's analysis in true Growing Nigeria style.
The global village is having a fever
Before we celebrate too much, Rewane advises that we look outside. The world is currently going through what economists call 'Knightian Uncertainty'; which is just a fancy way of saying 'we have no idea what’s coming next'. Check out these global plot twists:
Oil prices: They’ve been swinging between $59 and $71 per barrel. For a country that survives on 'Black Gold', that’s like trying to plan a party when you don’t know if the DJ will show up.
Gold & silver: Gold has hit an all-time high of $6,000 per ounce! Everyone is rushing to buy gold because they’re scared of other currencies.
The Cocoa crisis: Nigeria’s biggest non-oil export took a hit, with prices dropping 32% in just five weeks. Ouch.
Interest rates: Big players like the US Fed and the Bank of England are holding their breath (and their rates) because they’re scared of inflation making a comeback.
Basically, the global 'vibes' are off. But even in this chaos, Nigeria is finding its feet.
The good news: inflation is finally behaving
Remember when the price of everything felt like it was climbing Mount Everest? Well, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Experts project that inflation will drop to about 13.35% this month.
To help things along, Rewane says he's expecting the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to do something called a 'dovish' move. No, they aren't releasing birds; it means they might cut interest rates by 100 basis points (bringing the MPR to 26%). This is a signal that the CBN feels more confident about the economy and wants to make it a bit easier for businesses to breathe.
The game plan: how do we stay winning?
Stability isn't a fluke; it's a choice. To keep the Naira from doing the 'shaku shaku' again, Rewane says we need to focus on a few key things:
1. Watching the 'Ego' (money supply): The CBN has to be the strict parent here, says Rewane. We can’t just print money or let too much of it flood the system, or we’ll be back to square one with high prices.
2. The oil buffer: Our external reserves (our national 'savings account') are looking healthier, hitting an eight-year high of over $46 billion. This gives the CBN the 'liver'" to defend the Naira if speculators try to attack it. But we need oil prices to stay above $60 per barrel to keep the budget from crying.
3. Productivity is king: At the end of the day, a currency is only as strong as what the country produces. We need to keep pushing non-oil exports and making sure 'made in Nigeria' isn't just a slogan, but a lifestyle, warns Rewane.
What should you watch out for?
As we head into March, Rewane advises that you keep your eyes on three things:
The new tax laws: Everyone is waiting to see who carries the biggest tax burden. Will it be the 'big men' or the 'common man'?
Corporate earnings: Our big companies are about to release their report cards. If they are making profits, it means the economy is actually moving.
The MPC meeting: Watch what the CBN does with interest rates. It will dictate how much your next bank loan will cost!
Nigeria is proving that with the right reforms and a bit of discipline, we can turn the tide. The Naira is no longer the 'falling knife' people were afraid to touch. We are navigating a volatile world, but for the first time in a long time, we are doing it with a steady hand. The road ahead might have some potholes, but the engine is running, the tank is getting full, and Nigeria is moving forward. Let’s keep this energy!
Download original Rewane's report here